The stock of fast-moving consumer goods major Tata Consumer Products has been reaching new all-time highs on better-than-expected results for the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2), strong growth in the food business, and margin gains in the beverage/international business. Most brokerages are positive on the stock, given growth prospects, and believe that rich valuations are justified. The near-term trigger has been the robust operational performance in Q2.
The headline for corporate profit growth has been very encouraging in the July-September quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), with the combined net profit of listed companies up by 38 per cent year-on-year. However, the earnings distribution has been very lopsided, with most of the growth coming from public-sector oil-marketing companies (OMCs), banks, non-bank lenders, automobile (auto) companies, and cement producers. By comparison, companies from information technology services, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer durables were disappointed, experiencing a sharp slowdown in net sales growth and a relatively muted increase in reported net profit.
With sentiment for the automotive (auto) sector turning positive, stocks of two-wheeler auto majors have been hitting their 52-week highs. Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor Company, and Eicher Motors recently reached their yearly highs on strong sales in the festival season and the expectation of faster growth rates ahead. Since the start of this month, listed two-wheeler majors have delivered returns in the 12-17 per cent range, compared to the 7 per cent gains for the S&P BSE Auto Index and 3 per cent for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
India's leading capital goods and engineering firms are in the midst of one of their busiest seasons, with the combined orderbook surging past Rs 8 trillion in value. As on September 30, 2023, 13 of India's top 15 listed capital goods and engineering firms, for which data for the September 2023 quarter was available, had a total orderbook worth Rs 8.45 trillion - a number unseen at least since 2018-19. "This intuitively looks like an all-time high factoring in inflation," said Anupama Arora, a senior independent analyst who tracks the capital goods sector.
India's cement demand has consistently shown double-digit growth over the past few quarters, primarily driven by infrastructure spending. However, dealers and industry executives note that state elections, festival season, and, in some markets, weddings and pollution may temporarily disrupt this demand story. While the festival season typically sees a slowdown in construction activity, some dealers anticipate this lull extending throughout the entire month as multiple states enter election mode.
UPL, the country's largest agrochemical company, had a weak July-September quarter (Q2), reporting a sharp fall in revenues across geographies. Overall, the revenues were down 19 per cent on the back of lower agrochemical prices and inventory destocking. While the overall volumes were down 7 per cent, prices fell by 15 per cent. Volume decline in the European market was on the back of high channel inventory and product bans while in India the fall by 27 per cent was on account of muted demand for segments such as cotton and pulses.
'The fact still remains that we will have to deliver, so the pressure is now on us to make sure we get our resources, our supplies lined up at acceptable costs.'
Rise in input costs, inventory write-off, and pricing pressures led to a drop in gross margins. Higher competitive pressures led to cuts in operating profit margins and earnings estimates for FY24 and FY25. Most brokerages have a 'neutral' or a 'reduce' rating on the stock on account of valuations.
Even though Bharat Forge's performance in the July-September quarter broadly met Street estimates and defence orders are on the rise, the subdued outlook for its global business has prompted some brokerages to adopt a cautious stance on the company. Analysts have reduced the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates to account for the slow recovery of its overseas subsidiaries. Valuations are also trading at long-term averages, which could limit potential upsides.
InterGlobe Aviation, the operator of India's leading airline IndiGo, delivered a better than expected performance across most parameters in Q2FY24. The company posted its fourth consecutive quarter of net profit of Rs 188 crore. It had reported a loss of Rs 1,583 crore in the same quarter a year ago.
Bolstered by an impressive performance in the global specialty business and outstanding results in the Indian market, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, the largest pharmaceutical (pharma) company in the country, showcased a strong performance in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24).
A strong performance in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 (Q2FY24), an upward revision in the margin guidance and sustained momentum in US sales has helped the stock of pharmaceutical major Cipla gain about 2 per cent over the last two trading sessions. The brokerages have upgraded the earnings estimates for this financial year (FY24) by 6-9 per cent to factor in the improved margin guidance and sales in the US market. Led by the US market, which rose by 31 per cent, the company posted a 16 per cent growth in revenues.
10 non-bank and non-finance stocks from the BSE500 Index universe that offer an optimal blend of low valuation, reasonably robust revenue and earnings growth in recent quarters, a strong balance sheet, and most importantly, positive cash flow from their operations.
The Colgate-Palmolive (India) stock gained 2.3 per cent in trade on Friday, and ended at Rs 2,079 per share. This was on the back of a robust operating performance in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 (Q2FY24) and expectations of gradual sales recovery going ahead. While the stock is up 44 per cent from its lows in January this year, further gains will depend on its ability to sustain higher growth rates.
Since the start of this financial year (FY24), the stock of Aurobindo Pharma has been one of the top pharma gainers, enhancing investor wealth by over 68 per cent, with a third of those gains coming in the last three months. The stock is riding on multiple triggers given its investments in the production-linked incentive or PLI scheme, biosimilars, injectables and vaccines, which should drive revenues and profits over the medium term. Better than expected performance after the June quarter results led to a revision of earnings estimates for FY24 and FY25.
The July-September quarter results of software companies in the engineering research and development (ER&D) segment were broadly in line with expectations, though there have been cuts in revenue growth guidance. While results were a mixed bag, and there are cautionary views on the near-term outlook, brokerages and global consulting firms highlight the strong growth trajectory for the sector. They expect this segment of the software sector to grow by 8-12 per cent going forward.
Since their highs in September, chemical stocks have underperformed the benchmarks and broader indices over the past month with larger players witnessing a 9-22 per cent fall during this period. Expectations of weak September quarter results amid high inventory, demand woes and weak realisations have led to the underperformance.
Hotel companies, which have experienced substantial share price gains in the past six months, are not only expected to post robust revenue growth in the seasonally weak July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), with the trend continuing in the second half (H2) of FY24, but according to some analysts, they will also benefit from a structural uptrend in progress. To begin with, larger players in the listed hotel sector are expected to report strong growth in Q2 compared to the year-ago quarter. Led by higher demand from the business segment, the sector is expected to achieve a growth rate of 15-30 per cent.
Kajaria Ceramics, the country's leading listed tile manufacturer, has seen its stock fall by 7 per cent over the past month amid concerns about rising input costs and sluggish domestic demand. Other listed stocks also experienced weakness in September, although there was some recovery in October. While strong exports are expected to help stabilise domestic market prices, the surge in gas prices over the past couple of months may have impacted margins in the second half of FY24.
Notwithstanding record revenues in certain media sectors like film exhibition in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2), the operational performance of the broadcasting business remained subdued. Zee Entertainment Enterprises and Sun TV are expected to experience a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in advertising (ad) revenues during this period. Conversely, box office (BO) collections are anticipated to exceed Rs 3,000 crore in the quarter, propelled by a series of successful movie releases.
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